1. Introduction

The tourism sector ranks fourth after fuel, chemicals and automobile products as recorded by[1] and seen as a major sector in many economies[2]. It is a main source of foreign exchange for one-third of the developing countries and one-half of the Less Developed Countries LDC[3] and has become a major source of economic diversification for many countries[4, 2]. Some of such countries include Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Dubai and United Arab Emirates[5].

Furthermore, it has facilitated increased disposable income[4] and known to have many linkages with other economic sectors and contributes to the growth of all tourism related services in the entire major economic sectors[6]; in the long run produce economic growth, earnings and employments benefits. The fast growth has been attributed to the growth in leisure time as averred by[7] and an increase in discretionary income and a need to break away from the usual daily routine and engage in holidays.

As opined by[8], Nigeria has abundance of resources that can be diversified and enough to transform the socio- economic life of the populace. However, despite the abundance of the tourism resources, Nigeria is not listed among the major destinations in Africa[9]; due mainly because of the several problems such as inadequacies in standard development efforts, capacity building, the lack of basic tourism infrastructure, improper implementation of tourism policies and lack of skilled personnel in the tourism sector among other problems[9; 8].

As observed by[10], developing the natural and manmade attractions could serve as a strategy for the development of the surrounding environment as well as boost revenue generation. Tourism as noted by Runsewe in[11] holds the key to Nigeria economic diversification because of its ability to stimulate rapid economic growth and a vital tool for employment generation[9]. However, Nigeria continues to depend on exhaustible and irreplaceable crude oil and constantly faced with fluctuation and uncertainty in the global market[9; 12].

Thus, there is the urgent call for the diversification of the Nigerian economy through tourism, because tourism has the potential to be a “substantial engine growth” of the economy[12] as well as serve as protective mechanism for the environment if properly managed. However,[13] suggests that the many benefits and roles can only be possible if well developed and managed. The main objective of this study is therefore to investigate the roles tourism would play if the Nigerian economy is diversified from the much dependent crude oil.

2. Diversifying the Nigerian Economy through Tourism

Nigeria is one of the many countries which have long been a mono cultural economy, depending on the exportation of crude oil as its main source of foreign exchange earnings. Unfortunately, many of its citizens still live in poverty in spite of the huge resources from oil. Tourism as stated by[14] has always played a prominent role in the diversification and development strategies of many countries. As a result, many countries have succeeded in diversifying their economy through tourism.

The need for the diversification of the Nigerian economy from over-dependence on oil to tourism cannot be over emphasized, especially going by the unstable and fluctuating global oil prices in order to minimize the country’s vulnerability to macro-economic risks, such as production fall, fall in demand and price, and also a run out of reserves[15]. Although efforts are currently being made by the Nigerian government towards tourism development in order to diversify its economy through tourism. Otunba Runsewe, the present director general of the Nigeria Tourism Development Corporation (NTDC) stated that ‘if tourism is well harnessed and well understood, the problems of South-South, that is, the oil producing region would be greatly ameliorated’, it follows that promoting tourism would ameliorate the problems of unemployment in Nigeria. Also making a case for economic diversification,[16] argued that those other industries apart from petroleum need to be developed and the economy diversified, especially a service industry like tourism.

The Federal Government as noted by[17] is the custodian of the major sources of revenue in Nigeria and relied on by the three tiers of government, that is, Federal, State and Local Government. This has influenced different levels of development and also, determines the development in any region, which in this case, is mostly concentrated in the urban areas. Furthermore,[17] identified some roles of the government as: providing utilities i.e. water, electricity, telecommunication and other basic infrastructures, ensuring reasonable prices of goods and services to mention but a few. Also supporting these roles,[18] said the government is to ‘ensure that the national wealth is used for the happiness, freedom and welfare of every citizen by giving everybody equal opportunity to enjoy the wealth of the nation’. This is not the case with Nigeria as there is uneven development and pervasive poverty in the country despite the huge oil wealth. Developing tourism will open up improvement and growth in the rural areas where the attractions are mostly concentrated.

Eighty five percent of Nigeria’s revenue is derived from oil[19]. Nigeria was a major exporter of cocoa, palm oil, rubber and groundnuts up to the 1960s; but by the year 2000, the economy had become excessively dependent on oil forcing the decline in the agricultural sector. To buttress the dependency of Nigeria on oil, Usman Shamsudeen in[19] reported that of the N3, 915.56 billion total revenue derived in June 2008, N3, 133.00 billion was derived from oil.

In spite of the abundant oil, Nigeria is very poor and this has been attributed to corruption, government mismanagement and failure to diversify the economy[20; 16]. [21] Argued that Nigeria offers largely untapped potentials for tourism which needs to be aggressively pursued. The importance of tourism to economic growth, national development and poverty reduction cannot be over emphasized[21], and has the potential of providing livelihood strategies for the poor[22].

For rapid development in the Nigerian context, there is the need to move from the mono-cultural economy in order to put development as explained above at all tiers of government and to be able to measure up with other nations. In addition to the benefits earlier discussed, Nigeria stands to have better infrastructure and likely reduction in poverty from tourism development. The tourism sector is labor intensive and an avenue to create employment, it needs relatively short training and skills acquisition as compared to other sectors and if the required infrastructure is provided, it can enhance community development in Nigeria.

Although, tourism which has been in neglect is now being seen as a means of diversifying the Nigerian economy,[23] noted that, the economic goals of development have been frustrated by poor planning and poor management. Part of some efforts by the government has been the launch of a tourism master plan; however, the absence of effective policies at promoting and marketing Nigeria is a huge gap responsible for its inability to tap into the huge opportunities available in tourism all over the world[24].[25] argued that good governance is a ‘prerequisite for sustainable economic development, it gives the highest priority to poverty reduction, human development, productive employment, social integration and environmental regeneration’. As such the Nigerian economy especially cannot be diversified and tourism would not succeed if proper planning strategies are not streamlined by encouraging state and community participation in tourism planning and development with long term strategies.

3. Methodology

3.1. The Study Area

The study was carried out within two geopolitical zones out of the six geopolitical zones which make up Nigeria between the years 2010 and 2012; and it is an abridged part of a wider research on sustainable tourism development in Nigeria.

Nigeria, a country in the sub region of Africa is made up of thirty-six states and the federal capital territory, Abuja; and further sub divided into six geopolitical zones namely the North-west, North-east, North-central, South-west, South-east and South-south as shown in Figure 1 from which two zones were randomly selected for the study. The country is located in West Africa on latitude 9⁰ 4’ North of the equator and Longitude 7⁰ 29’ East of the Greenwich Meridian and has a population of about 167 Million people[26; 27; 28].

Figure 1. Map of Nigeria showing the six Geopolitical zones

3.2. Research Design

The study adopted the review of relevant literature in combination with the quantitative method of data collection in order to gauge the views of tourism stakeholders in Nigeria on the role diversifying the Nigerian economy through tourism would play. The quantitative method measured the data in numerical terms, while the review of relevant literature allowed in-depth knowledge of factors underpinning their views to give credible and valid results[29] and used various publications.

3.3. Target Population

The two zones selected randomly from the six geopolitical zones made up the study population and these were the North-Central and the South-West geopolitical Zones. Four states, Kogi, Ekiti, Ondo states, the Federal Capital Territory-Abuja and an academic institution were further selected from the study population using the simple random and convenience sampling methods to represent the sample frame from where samples were drawn.

3.4. Sample Selection

A stratified random sampling was used in the selection of respondents from all stakeholders in the tourism industry, including staff of the Nigerian Tourism Board, hotels and travel agents, government employees, non-government employees and tourists. On whom eight hundred and fifty closed ended questionnaires were randomly administered by closely supervised trained research assistants. In the questionnaire, respondent opinions were measured on a Likert scale of 4 points, where 4 denotes strongly agree and 1 denotes strongly disagree. The assistants were trained and initially used for pilot survey to check for possible problems. This helped to ascertain reliability, overall structure and verified that the questionnaire meets the expectation for usefulness.

3.5. Sample Size and Analysis

A sample size of two hundred was estimated for each of the states selected and fifty academics, this was neither too small nor too large in order to achieve the objective. At the end of the survey, a total of seven hundred and forty-five questionnaires were returned completed, thus a response rate of eighty-seven percent were recorded. Data was analyzed using the Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSSx) and descriptive statistics used to compute the mean perception of respondents as well as express results in simple percentages and frequency, standard deviation for characteristics and data dispersal. Also a multi variate analysis was explored using the multiple regressions with a model specification of:

(1)

Where Y = dependent variable, Α₀ = Constant/ intercept, β = slope, X= independent variable and E= regression residual.

4. Results and Discussion

Characteristics of respondents are summarised as shown in Table 1. Results from the analysis of the characteristics of the respondents using the SPSS_X showed that males predominate in the sample, representing 63.4 per cent while female respondents were 36.6 per cent, which comes as no surprise given the over powering influence in the Nigerian culture, men tend to take important decisions concerning the households. It is not an overstatement to say that housewives would usually keep questionnaires of this nature for their husbands or ask the researcher to come back when their husbands are available. The predominance of men in the sample is reflected in the mode average, which is 1. These are revealed in Table 1.

Table 1. Respondents Characteristics

Most of the participants were within the age bracket of 20-50 years, accounting for 83.7 per cent of the total sample size while those above the age of 50 years accounted for 10.7 per cent with 5.6 per cent refusing to participate. Furthermore, majority of respondents which accounted for 49.3 per cent were government employees, 28.4 per cent are self-employed, 22.1 per cent are unemployed, while 0.1 of the total sample did not respond. The educational background of respondents was also surveyed, revealing that respondents are well educated with 65.8 per cent having had a tertiary education. Similarly, 12.6 are educated to secondary school level, and 12.2 per cent are educated to primary school level, while only8.9 per cent had no formal education and needed assistance with the questionnaire. These are also revealed in Table 1

Also, a total of 58.9 percent are married while 39.1 percent are single. About 1.6 per cent are widows while 0.4 did not respond. The range of income level was also ascertained with 48.1 earning between N7,500 and N100,000 per month; 41.1 per cent earn above N100, 000 per month; 25.1 percent earn between N100,001 – N500,000 monthly; 16.0 per cent earn above N500, 000 monthly, while 10.2 per cent did not respond to this question. As revealed in Table 1.

The characteristics of respondents showed that all stakeholders are represented in the sample, these range from low income earners to high income earners, different age groups, and sufficiently educated to understand the questionnaire survey. The uneducated segment of respondents’ population is assisted by trained field assistants. This degree of representation can only enhance the validity and credibility of results.

5. Achieving Economic Diversification through Tourism

The factor, achieving economic diversification through sustainable tourism was regressed using the forced entry and stepwise regression against some predictor variables done in order to determine how well they predict. The result explained the possibility of achieving huge economic benefits through sustainable tourism development. This was done in order to check for strength, direction of relationships, significance and also to determine relationship[30] between the dependent variable “Y” also known as the criterion variable and the independent variables (X1,…X2) also known as the predictor variables, based on the data collected from the field survey. A multiple regression equation for predicting Y is expressed as Υ = Α₀ + β₁X₁ + β₂X₂ + β₃X₃... β_nX_n + E_t [31; 32; 33].

In the forced entry regression, all the independent variables were entered simultaneously into the model to check for those variables that are significant to the model. Thirteen variables were regressed against the criterion variable V13 (ECOPOTO) -Economic Potentials of Tourism using forced entry in checking the relationships. The thirteen independent variables are:

1. V11 (INFRATODE) Infrastructure and tourism development;

2. V14 (OPTODEV) Opportunities in tourism development;

3. V15 (VTODEV) Viability of tourism development;

4. V16 (TOIGR) Tourism as a source of internally generated revenue;

5. V43 (RELACCOM) Relevance of accommodation to tourism development;

6. V44 (RELCATER) Relevance of catering to tourism;

7. V45 (RTTOD) Relevance of transportation to tourism development;

8. V46 (RELELECT) Relevance of electricity to tourism development;

9. V47 (RELWATER) Relevance of water supply to tourism development;

10. V48 (LANDREQ) Landscaping as a required infrastructure in tourism development;

11. V55 (FUND) Funding as a factor of tourism development;

12. V56 (CONSLAND) Consideration of landscaping in tourism development and

13. V57 (POLICY) Policy and implementation strategy in sustainable tourism development.

Upon forced entry, only four predictor variables associated strongly with the criterion variable. These are V14 (OPTODEV), V16 (TOIGR), V11 (INFRATODE), and V44 (RELCATER). The coefficient of determination (R²), a variation that can be accounted for by the criterion variable was 0.599 and signifies that the predictor variables collectively explained 60% of the residual variation in the criterion variable and show that the strength between the criterion variable and the predictor variables is relatively strong. The F ratio was 83.961 at 0.000 significant as shown by the analysis of variance (ANOVA) Table 2 and explains that the predictor variables have great influence on the criterion variable.

Table 2. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Forced Entry

Using the Forced entry method, a significant model emerged with Results from the Forced entry method shows F=83.961, P < 0.005, Adjusted R Square = .592 and showed that only four predictor variables significantly explained the residual variation in ECOPOTO at α = 0.05 or 95% confidence level, the critical level adopted for this study. The significant variables are V14 (OPTODEV), V16 (TOIGR), V11 (INFRATODE), and 44 (RELCATER).

Furthermore, the Stepwise regression was also employed with V13 as the criterion variable and V14 (OPTODEV), V16 (TOIGR), V11 (INFRATODE) and V44 (RELCATER) as the predictor variables. These were entered into the model one after the other according to their ability, measured in Beta values, that is, the standardized coefficient; the highest value contributed the most in the prediction of the criterion variable. V14 (OPTODEV) has the highest Beta coefficient of .457 and contributes the most to the model with absolute significance. This was followed by V16 (TOIGR), with a Beta value of .184; V11 (INFRATODE) Beta value at .175 and V44 (RELCATER) Beta value at .087, all the variables are significant at p-value of 0.000 i.e. absolute significant levels.

The results of the stepwise regression show that the coefficient of determination R² is .593 which implies that the predictor variables can account for 60 percent residual variation in the dependent variable (ECOPOTO).

The ANOVA of the stepwise regression in Table 3 indicates that the regression sum of squares accounts for 59.3 percent of the total sum of square. The calculated value of F- ratio is 269.843 with absolute significance level of 0.000. This implies that the predictor variables have significant influence on the criterion variable.

Table 3. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Stepwise

In predicting the criterion variable for the second factor, which is achieving economic diversification through sustainable tourism, the equation for best line of fit was substituted as shown below:

(2)

Therefore the outcome of the model on economic diversification is

(3)

Where Y is Economic Potential of Tourism and implies that:

(4)

The important predictor variable that contributed the most to predicting the criterion variable is OPTODEV: Opportunities in tourism development; TOIGR: Tourism as a source of internally generated revenue; INFRATODE: Infrastructure and tourism development; and RELCATER: Relevance of catering to tourism regressed against the dependent variable ECOPOTO (Economic Potentials of Tourism).

6. Policy Implication and Recommendations

The model has shown the role tourism will play in diversifying the Nigerian economy through sustainable development and has corroborated the findings from the literature. Conversely, attention should be paid to the four variables as shown in the above equation. If greater attention is paid to diversifying, the economy will improve and this is further discussed.

6.1. Opportunities in Tourism Development (OPTODEV)

OPTODEV contributed the most to the model, with a correlation of 0.731, a regression coefficient of 0.490 and Beta coefficient value of .457 at α = 0.000 i.e. 100% confidence level. Holding the effect of all other variables constant, ECOPOTO will change by 49% if OPTODEV is change by 100%. With the emergence of democracy and the relative political stability in Nigeria, attention is gradually being paid to tourism. However, more efforts are needed if Nigeria is to diversify its economy through tourism among others. Considering the diverse and huge tourism potentials that abound in Nigeria, the country stands at a very vantage position of harnessing same for job creation, poverty reduction strategy and enhancing the economic base of both private individuals and governments across the board. Other benefits include infrastructural development, economic growth, cultural identity, competitive value, social integration among others. However, to succeed in bringing the Nigerian tourism as a high flyer, the government needs to involve not only the private sector, but all government at all levels in promoting the Nigerian tourist destinations across the nation.

6.2. Tourism as a Source of Internally Generated Revenue (TOIGR)

The correlation coefficient of TOIGR with ECOPOTO is 0.654 and signifies a co-variation and association between the two. The regression coefficient is .198 which indicates that given 100% change in TOIGR, ECOPOTO will change by 19.8%. Provided the effects of other variable remain constant; the Beta coefficient is .184 and significant at 0.000 i.e. 100% confidence level. Tourism can be explored as an additional source of internally generated revenue by tapping into the numerous tourism resources. Although all states in Nigeria rely on the monthly revenue allocations from the Federated account, this varies from state to state due to certain factors such as derivation formula. For instance, oil producing states in the country earn more than non-oil producing ones. Thus if tourism is given due attention, it can sustain and augment state revenue that have these natural endowments.

Fortunately enough, all regions or states in Nigeria are relatively endowed with natural resources which can supplement the monthly allocations and upon which they can seek alternative sources of revenue generation. As such, the numerous tourism potentials should be focused on and developed appropriately to serve as additional internally generated revenue.

6.3. Infrastructure and Tourism Development (INFRATODE)

INFRATODE ranked third in the regression model with a correlation coefficient of 0.582, a good association with ECOPOTO. INFRATODE has a regression coefficient value of .180 and Beta coefficient value of .175 at absolute significance. Given 100% change in INFRATODE while holding the effect of other variables constant ECOPOTO will change by 18%. The provision of basic infrastructure is a pre-requisite towards attaining economic growth. Infrastructures will support the tourists’ needs and encourage investment. Thus without the necessary tourism infrastructure being put in place, tourism in Nigeria would not progress. In essence, adequate infrastructures need to be provided for all the states to benefit from tourism. This will include, roads, landscaping elements, recreational facilities, constant electricity supply, decent hotel accommodation, water, efficient transportation, solid waste disposal and effective communication.

6.4. Relevance of Catering to Tourism Development (RELCATER)

Variable RELCATER ranked fourth in the contribution to the regression model with a correlation of 0.437. This indicates a good association between the two variables. The regression coefficient is .070, and the Beta coefficient is .087 at absolute significance. ECOPOTO will contribute a change of 0.7% if RELCATER undergoes 100% change while the effects of other variables are held constant. Catering apart from infrastructure is also an important need at any tourist destination. Host communities must be able to cater for tourists and provide conducive and attractive environments for a long lasting experience. In planning towards sustainable tourism growth, certain supporting facilities such as restaurants, cafes, snack bars are paramount for smooth operations.

7. Conclusions

The study has elaborated on the need for the Nigerian economy to be diversified away from crude oil in order to have other sources of revenue generation. Through the multivariate analysis, using the multiple regressions, the study showed several roles tourism could play if given a focus; and these roles include the opportunities in various developments, serves as a source of revenue generation, infrastructure development in and around the destinations and also the development and relevance of catering facilities. In this light, the paper suggests the urgent need of focusing on tourism as an added revenue booster as well as the proper development of tourist destinations in Nigeria.