International Journal of Probability and Statistics
p-ISSN: 2168-4871 e-ISSN: 2168-4863
2021; 10(3): 63-73
doi:10.5923/j.ijps.20211003.01
Received: Nov. 10, 2021; Accepted: Nov. 29, 2021; Published: Dec. 15, 2021

Gladys Gakenia Njoroge
Department of Physical Sciences, Chuka University, Chuka, Kenya
Correspondence to: Gladys Gakenia Njoroge, Department of Physical Sciences, Chuka University, Chuka, Kenya.
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Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Scientific & Academic Publishing.
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY).
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Many of the herbal medicines involving mixtures have process variables and assessing the effect of the mixture and process simultaneously is economical. Little application of designs of mixture-process experiments has been made on herbal medicine especially where optimization of both the mixture and process is concerned. This study set out to: carry out a mixture-process experiment using the most optimal split-plot design on herbal medicine for diabetes mellitus control using alloxan-induced diabetic albino wistar rats; and determine a model that provides a good fit to the experimental data and analyse it. To achieve the aims of the study, the most efficient optimal split-plot design was employed to obtain optimal mixture proportions of three herbal drugs and their extraction conditions on change of blood glucose level of alloxan-induced diabetic albino wistar rats. Secondly, a 28-term model was fitted to the experimental data, model adequacy tested and model reduction done accordingly. The final fitting model was used to carry out graphical optimization to obtain optimal mixture components and extraction conditions of the herbal formula. The general finding was that the single herbs were more effective than the complete mixtures with Cinnamomum verum being the most effective single herb. The extraction conditions of the herbs have an effect on the way the herbs, whether singly or in a mixture affect the response. Further, the optimal predicted response was 10.848mmol/l change in blood glucose level produced by a mixture blend of 491.5mg of Cinnamomum verum and 385.5mg of Gymnema sylvestre extracted at 25°C and a time of 15 minutes. These findings imply that mixing of herbs should only be done if it is experimentally proven that the mixture works better than the single herbs. The optimal extraction conditions for the herbs should be experimentally established for maximum effect. This further implies that any policies being formulated in order to regulate the standards and practise of herbal medicine should be based on research.
Keywords: Graphical optimization, Split-plot design, Mixture, Process, Diabetes mellitus
Cite this paper: Gladys Gakenia Njoroge, Graphical Optimization of Mixture-Process Experiment: An Application to Diabetes Mellitus Herbal Treatment, International Journal of Probability and Statistics , Vol. 10 No. 3, 2021, pp. 63-73. doi: 10.5923/j.ijps.20211003.01.
with
vertices for
factors. The exploration of a response surface over the simplex region involves: selecting of an appropriate model to approximate the surface over the region of interest, testing of the adequacy of the model in representing the response surface, developing an appropriate design for collecting observations, fitting the model to the data and testing the model’s adequacy of fit [8]. There are many practical situations in which the response of interest may be influenced by both the mixture components and experimental conditions. These experimental conditions are referred to as the process variables and they are not part of the mixture components. However, their levels when changed could affect the blending properties of the components [9]. A combination of the mixture design (for the mixture ingredients) and a process design for the process factors leads to a mixture-process experiment. After the data has been obtained using the combined mixture-process experimental designs, polynomial models are then fitted to the data and the appropriate tests for adequacy of fit are carried out. A typical strategy for designing experiments in chemical process industry involves two steps; first, that of fine tuning the formulation via a mixture design and then a second step of optimizing the process with factorial design and response surface methods. When the experiment is designed with the two steps being handled separately however, the interactions between the mixture component variables and those of the process factors cannot be revealed. There is therefore need to have a comprehensive experiment that combines the two in one “crossed” design. The main objectives of a mixture-process experiment are: to determine a model that provides a good fit to the mixture-process data so that the contours of the fitted response surface represent the behaviour of the response to changes in the mixture and process terms and to be able to use the model to interpret the relationship between the mixture components and the process factors. A commonly used design that combines the mixture components and the process factors is the split-plot design [23]. Two levels of randomization exist in the mixture-process variables within the split plot design (SPD) structure leading to two types of errors; the whole plot and the subplot errors. [7] and [31] recommended restricted maximum likelihood (REML) method for estimating the variance component in SPDs. The generalised linear mixed model, which accommodates the two levels of randomization, is advocated for split-plot designs [11], [20].According to [29] and [27] over 90% of the diabetes patients are diagnosed with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, T2DM. Either the body cells become insulin resistant or the beta cells in the pancreas do not produce enough insulin or both. The insulin secretion in the pancreas decreases with gradual beta cell failure, making T2DM a progressive disease that makes the patients to get gradually worse [18]. To reduce blood glucose levels, the patients are usually treated with a special diet and physical exercises [16]. Eventually, oral medication and/or insulin injections may be required. The main contributing factors to T2DM include: obesity, lack of physical activity, genetic predisposition (family history), age (onset of puberty is associated with increased insulin resistance), medication causing hyperglycaemia or conditions associated with insulin resistance such as polycystic ovary syndrome [26]. The early warning signs of T2DM include: frequent urination (polyuria), increased thirst (polydipsia), increased appetite (polyphagia), unexpected weight loss, extreme fatigue and blurred vision. If left undiagnosed or poorly managed, T2DM can lead to complications such as stroke, coronary artery disease (CAD), kidney failure, limb amputations and blindness [1], [27]. According to [32] herbal medicine includes; herbs, herbal materials, herbal preparations and finished herbal products that contain as active ingredients, parts of plants, other materials or combinations thereof. A large number of rural populations especially in the developing countries depend on herbal medicine as their main source of primary health care. In both developing and developed countries, there has been increase in public interest and acceptance in natural therapies [22]. Compared to conventional medicines, herbal medicine cost less, are more often used to treat chronic diseases, are more readily available and the occurrence of undesirable side effects seem to be less frequent [6]. Medicinal plants, especially in Africa and Asia have great potentials to alleviate different array of ailments [22]. A number of medicinal plants have been researched on and found to have potential to control and treat diabetes mellitus [1], [14], [18], [22].Experiments have been carried out in laboratories to test the potency of these herbal remedies; a number of these experiments were reviewed. [28] evaluated the effects of methanolic extracts of the bulbs of Garlic, Persian shallot and leaves of sage on the antioxidant enzymes in alloxan induced diabetic Wistar rats. The three extracts were tested separately and their activity compared with diabetic control rats. They used male rats weighing 200-250g. The herbs were extracted using 80% methanol. They concluded that the three extracts were beneficial in the control of diabetes by displaying noticeable antioxidant and hypolipidemic properties. [4] experimented on the protective effect of Commiphora wightii in metabolic activity of STZ induced diabetes in rats. The extraction of the C. wightii was done using ethyl acetate solvent at room temperature. They used male albino Wistar rats of weight 250-300g. They concluded that the extract could be considered as a protective herbal drug for diabetes. [10] on the other hand, carried out an experiment to investigate the hepato-protective properties of combined extracts of Moringa oleifera and Vernoniaamygdalina in STZ induced diabetic albino Wistar rats. Rats of both sexes weighing between 120 and 180g wereused in the experiment. Equal portions of each extract were combined and used in one of the test groups. The herbs were extracted using 80% ethanol at room temperature. The combined extract significantly reversed diabetes in the rats by lowering the Blood Glucose Level (BGL) similarly to glibenclamide and insulin. They however did not check on the synergism of the two extracts nor compared the effect of the combined extract to the single extracts.Extraction is a crucial first step in the analysis of medicinal plants and proper actions need to be taken to ensure that potential active constituents of the plant extract are not lost, destroyed or distorted during the preparation of the extract [24]. The basic parameters influencing the quality of an extract are: the part of the plant used as the starting material, the solvent used for extraction and the extraction procedure employed, [12]. Time and temperature of extraction are important factors in determining the metabolite composition of an extract [13]. Various methods of extraction exist and they usually depend on a number of factors such as: the length of the extraction period, the solvent being used, the pH of the solvent, the temperature of the solvent, particle size of the plant tissues and the solvent to sample ratio [13]. It is important to establish the time required for the extraction since on one hand, insufficient time of extraction means incomplete extraction while on the other hand; over extended extraction time implies unwanted constituents of the plant may also be extracted [5]. The type of solvent used for extraction depends on whether the targeted compounds are polar or non-polar. The polar constituents are extracted using the polar solvents like water and the non-polar constituents are extracted using the non-polar solvents such as hexane [24]. The temperature of the solvent depends on the stability of the constituent compounds towards heat. The thermo-labile constituents are distorted or destroyed at high temperatures and therefore relatively low temperatures should be used, while the thermo-stable constituents can be extracted at high temperatures [3].![]() | (1) |
![]() | (2) |
![]() | (3) |

.To induce diabetes, the rats were fasted for 16 hours beforehand. Subsequently, they were given a single dose of intra-peritoneal injection of 150mg/kg body weight. This dose was composed of 5% alloxan monohydrate dissolved in freshly prepared citrate buffer (0.1M, pH 4.5). Three days after induction, they were tested for diabetes. To check the blood sugar level, blood sample was obtained by the tail clip method. The BGL test involved placing a drop of blood on a blood glucose test strip, GlucoPlusTM and then inserting the strip into a clinical GlucoPlusTM blood glucose meter. Measurements of the glucometer reading was in minimolar per litre (mmol/l), or mg/dl, where
Fasting Plasma Glucose (FPG) test was done after 12 hours of fasting. Fasting plasma glucose values ≥ 7.0 mmol/l (126mg/dl) was considered as provisional diagnosis of diabetes. To confirm diabetes, a 2-hour postload glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l (200mg/dl) test was taken [2].![]() | (4) |
, was coded as
and time for extraction of the herbal drug
, was coded as
. The 22 factorial arrangement in the two process variables had the levels of the coded variables denoted as
and
laid out as:![]() | (5) |
|
![]() | (6) |
with interactions was of the form![]() | (7) |
![]() | (8) |
![]() | (9) |
![]() | (10) |
, is a modified version of
adjusted to the number of predictors in the model. In addition, its value only increases if the new term(s) or removed term(s) improves the model more than would be expected by chance. If the model did not fit the data, then model reduction was performed by removing any individual terms that were not statistically significant according to the t-statistics tests. This process continued until a final model that appropriately fitted the experimental data was obtained. Upon obtaining the final reduced model that was fitting the experimental data, graphical optimization procedure was employed to get an optimal predicted response as well as the corresponding predictor values of the mixture proportions for the herbal components and the extraction conditions. This was achieved using Design-Expert® version 10.
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level relative to noise. This P-value implied that there was a 16% chance that an F-value of 1.82 could occur due to noise. In addition, the lack of fit p-value of 0.0004 was significant. This p-value implied that only a 0.04% chance that a lack of fit F-value this large could occur due to noise. These results gave significant evidence to show that the model (10) was not fit for the mixture-process experimental data. To further measure the model adequacy, the adequate precision value for the model (10) was obtained as 5.869 which is greater than 4 and which indicated an adequate signal.
value was obtained for this model. This implied that 83.12% of the change in BGL was accounted for by the model, this was relatively a good value to validate the relationship between the response and the explanatory variables.
value was calculated as 0.3753. This value was a bit low and required improvement through model reduction.The conclusion that was drawn from the various tests carried out on the 28-term model was that the model was not fit for the data. As observed on the test of significance of the parameter estimates for the 28-term model, a number of model terms were not statistically significant and this could have been the cause of the model lack of fitness to the experimental data. There was therefore need to reduce this model to a point where it fits the data appropriately.To navigate the reduction of the model (10), the first step involved the elimination of the four cubic terms since they were not statistically significant at α = 0.05 level. This left behind a 24 term model composed of a cross of quadratic mixture model with the linear with interaction model (2FI) of the process variables. R statistical environment was used to estimate the 24 model terms, obtain their t-statistics and p-values as shown in table (5).
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value for this model was 0.989, implying that 98.9% of the change in BGL was accounted for by the model. This was relatively a very good value to validate the relationship between the response and the explanatory variables. The
value of 0.961, was obtained, which was a big improvement from the
of the 28-term model.The 24-term model was significant at α = 0.001 level. However, the results of table (5) showed that 18 of the model parameters were statistically significant but the remaining 6 were not statistically significant at α = 0.05 level. Therefore, further reduction of the model was necessary. The remaining model had 18 model terms.
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![]() | (11) |
value of 0.996 was obtained. This value of
implies that over 99% of the changes in the BGL were explained by the herbal treatments as prepared under the stated processing conditions.
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seems to be the single most effective herbal drug in controlling blood glucose level. It is then followed by neem
and finally, Gymnema
. The three however seem to have an antagonistic blending effect with high temperature
The blending effect of the pure blends with the time of extraction was not significant as shown in table (3) and hence dropped from model (11). Further, the three pure blends have a synergistic blending effect with the two processing conditions, temperature and time combined, though this effect cannot match that shown at the low levels of these processing conditions. As has been the observation all along the analysis, the mixture blend of cinnamon and Gymnema at equal proportion under high level of time produced the highest change in blood glucose level. To obtain the optimal predicted response and the corresponding predictor values using the 18-term model, a graphical optimization approach was carried out using Design-Expert® version 10 and produced an overlay plot below.![]() | Figure 1. Graphical representation of the optimization results |
![]() | (12) |
The
factorial processing factors were transformed from coded to original values using the formula
For temperature:
and
Thus
which corresponds to code 0.
Therefore,
This is approximately 25°C.For time:
and 
Thus
This is approximately 15 minutes.The optimal predicted change in blood glucose level from model (11) according to the overlay plot (figure 1) was 10.8487mmol/l from the predictor values in (12).
value in each model was high enough to validate the relationship between the response and the explanatory variables. The
value increased progressively from the original model to the 18-term model as terms that were not statistically significant were dropped. The contour plots for the special cubic models gave patterns of prediction that well agreed with the numerical analysis. The biggest change in blood glucose level found to be from binary blends of cinnamon and Gymnema. Through graphical optimization, the optimal predicted response using the fitting 18-term model was found to be 10.848mmol/l. The predictor variables in their original units were obtained as 491.5mg of cinnamon, 385.5mg of Gymnema, a temperature of 25°C and time of 15 minutes.