Mohamed Buheji1, Aamir Hasan2
1Founder, International Institute of Inspiration Economy, Bahrain
2Advocate, India
Correspondence to: Mohamed Buheji, Founder, International Institute of Inspiration Economy, Bahrain.
Email: |  |
Copyright © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Scientific & Academic Publishing.
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY).
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Abstract
Uncertainties pose challenges to a country's stability and development. However, uncertainty also presents opportunities for growth and innovation. By addressing uncertainties proactively, countries like Syria can foster a more resilient and dynamic development pathway. This paper explores how to hamper and avoid uncertainty when acting decisively as it grapples with the multiplicity of issues requiring urgent attention, from social cohesion and infrastructure rebuilding to economic recovery and security. The authors delve into the challenges of uncertainty in Syria, exploring its implications for domestic governance, regional dynamics, and international relations. By prioritising adaptability and resilience, the Syrian government can navigate the complexities of post-war recovery and harness uncertainties as opportunities for growth and stability. Through analysing historical precedents and comparative case studies, this paper aims to identify strategies that could facilitate a constructive path forward for dealing with Syria’s uncertainties in its journey toward rebuilding and fostering a stronger society and robust socioeconomic development.
Keywords:
Syria Post-revolution, Uncertainty, Economic Recovery, Resilience, Adaptability, Conflict Recovery, Development Strategies
Cite this paper: Mohamed Buheji, Aamir Hasan, Hope Amidst Uncertainty: The Journey of Rebuilding Syria's Future, International Journal of Psychology and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 15 No. 1, 2025, pp. 1-9. doi: 10.5923/j.ijpbs.20251501.01.
1. Introduction
As with any post-revolution government, Syria today is overwhelmed by an excess of ideas and demands and a mix of uncertainty. This uncertainty causes some paralysis in the community as conflicting ideas and requirements overload them, and the government struggles to take decisive action due to the sheer volume of input and the complexity of issues.Attempting to address too many demands at once can strain limited resources, leading to inefficiencies and potentially neglecting critical areas that require urgent attention. With multiple competing priorities, Syrian communities may lose sight of their primary goals, such as rebuilding unity and their social assets, supporting infrastructure rebuilding, promoting economic recovery, and ensuring security and stability. This helps to build the 'Goodwill Value' for Syria's today’s and future stability, Buheji (2025).Diverse interests and expectations from different communities and international stakeholders can increase tensions and conflicts, both domestically and diplomatically, especially if groups feel their needs are not being prioritised. This paper analyses the challenges and new norms of mitigating the uncertainty for Syria due to the change of the Assad regime and the possible impact on domestic, regional, and global politics and economy. Buheji (2020b).Trying to accommodate a wide range of demands can result in inconsistent or contradictory policies, undermining public confidence and hindering effective governance. While excessive external influence can lead to a perceived or actual erosion of national sovereignty, where international actors dictate aspects of domestic policy, potentially leading to public resentment.Uncertainty might even increase as the government tries to address the hunger of many communities, which may lead to diluted policies that fail to effectively address any single issue, reducing the overall impact of government initiatives. Unmet expectations due to over-promising or an inability to deliver on diverse demands can lead to public disillusionment and reduced trust in the government. Buheji (2020a).To mitigate these dangers, the Syrian government must prioritise a transparent communication model and inclusive decision-making processes that mitigate the impact of uncertainty, help manage expectations, and promote sustainable progress. Buheji (2020b).
2. Literature Review
2.1. Importance of Uncertainties for the Development of Countries
Uncertainties play a significant role in developing countries, impacting economic growth, social stability, governance, and optimising goodwill value (Buheji, 2025). When uncertainties affect a country's economic conditions, such as inflation, market fluctuations, and global trade dynamics, investment decisions and fiscal policies are influenced. Therefore, many governments need to account for these uncertainties to create effective economic strategies.High levels of uncertainty can impact decisions relevant to socioeconomic reforms if the outcomes are unpredictable, which can delay essential development initiatives. Uncertainty can also deter foreign direct investment (FDI) as investors seek stable environments. Therefore, countries with high political or economic uncertainty may find it challenging to attract investment, which is crucial for development.Some see that uncertainties stemming from social and political instability can lead to conflict and unrest. Addressing these uncertainties through inclusive governance and dialogue can enhance social cohesion and development. On the flip side, uncertainties can spur innovation. Businesses and governments may develop new solutions and strategies to navigate uncertain environments, leading to economic growth and resilience. Buheji (2020a).Therefore, understanding uncertainties allows countries to better prepare for potential crises, whether they are economic, socioeconomic, environmental, or social. Effective risk management can mitigate the negative impacts of these uncertainties. Countries that acknowledge uncertainties can engage in scenario planning and develop flexible strategies that adapt to changing circumstances, enhancing their ability to achieve sustainable development goals. Buheji (2020b).
2.2. History and Background of Syria
The Syrian Arab Republic is a country situated in West Asia. Syria has a rich global history, as in this region, many battles with different empires occurred and changed the world, such as the Egyptian, Persian, Roman and, before that, the Greek Empires. Eilam(2019).Today, Syria as a country is located in West Asia. On the west is the Mediterranean Sea, on the north is Turkey, Iraq is on the east, and on the south is Jordan & Lebanon and Israel on the southwest. The population of Syria is 25 million, and the area of Syria is 185,180 square kilometres, Wikipedia (2025). Since the start of the Syrian conflict, it has been more than 13 years, and the political turmoil continues in Syria, which has deeply affected its economy and substantial security threats. The implications are massive not only for the Syrian citizens but also for the entire region. Bashar al-Assad ignored the dialogue process with the opposition; consequently, the marginalised Sunni community added to the resentment. Center For Operational Analysis and Research. (2024).Center For Operational Analysis and Research. (2024) sees it is almost impossible to predict Syria's future after the fled Bashar al-Assad. The new government faces an uphill task since it is facing a daunting task of combating not only the social and physical destruction of the war but also the legacy left behind by the almost 50-year-old Assad family regime. The toppling of the Assad regime was due to uncertainty of military, political, social and humanitarian factors, which were triggered by the offensive attack of HTS.The Syrian army was one of the most powerful armies in the region, but because of the civil war over the years, it became weak and had to depend heavily on the Russian and Iranian armies. Consequently, with Russia engaged in the Ukraine war and Israel attacking Iran, the Syrian military could not sustain the attack by HTS. Further, the Assad regime became a puppet of the foreign army and lost the trust of the indigenous Syrian army. MENA Task Force. (2024).Uncertainty loomed as Syria started to become isolated internationally before being ousted by the rebel group. There was uncertainty on the part of Russia, a long-term ally of Syria, as it started to focus more on acquiring strategic interests in Syria, such as setting up military bases in Syria, rather than supporting Assad in fighting against the rebel groups. Similarly, Iran limited its support to Syria due to uncertain domestic and international pressure. The role of Turkey also became uncertain as it started supporting the rebel group against Assad both militarily and logistically. MENA Task Force. (2024).The use of excessive violence and the use of chemical weapons against civilians was another factor of uncertainty, since the fate of stockpiles of chemical weapons may have resulted in the contamination of the land over the years. MENA Task Force. (2024).With the end of fifty years of Ba’ath party, the new government faces the risk of providing a stable government and preventing any further civil war or putting Syria again in an uncertain condition. Hayat al Tahrir, with support from the Syrian National Army, were able to capture Damascus and topple the Assad government. The Assad government was ousted because of its weakness in internally controlling Syria and its heavy dependence on foreign countries to control Syria, Du Buisson (2025). The priority of the newly established regime is to stabilise the country, reduce the region's instability, end the dominance of the radical forces and provide a credible government.
2.3. Complexity of Syria that are Leading to Sources of Uncertainty
As shown in Table (1) the devestating rules of both Ba’ath party and Al-Asad regime have lift the country with daunting human loss. This loss effects all the types of SDG’s in relevance to people with disability, poverty, literacy, displacement and total desctruction of the infrastructure in many cities and villages outside the capital Damascus. Table (1). Sample of the Destruction that causes Uncertainty for Syria Today  |
| |
|
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has been central to the Syrian revolution and has played a huge role in the administration of the country, and trying to apply the basics of good governance and carry out a better international relations plan. The newly formed government would be under strict vigilance. In his victory speech, the leader of Hayat al-Sham (HTS) at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, Ahmad al-Shara’a, said that all the people of Syria are the actual owners of the country has been appreciated globally by Al Jazeera. (2024). Al-Shara’a has been advocating for the inclusion of minority communities in the government formation, Center For Operational Analysis and Research. (2024). However, the uncertainty lies in how the new government would handle the situation as there is a vast sectarian conflict in Syria, especially with the diversity in the religious backgrounds in Syria, as shown in Table (2).Table (2). Diversity of Syrian Sectarian and Ethnicity  |
| |
|
2.4. What is Uncertainty?
Uncertainty may be referred to as not being sure about anything or having doubt about anything. Uncertainty can be stated as insufficient knowledge about a particular subject that could be of interest to any human or machine, Cuzzolin (2016). Uncertainty adds to the flavour of life when there is uncertainty in social life and decision-making ability. According to the research conducted by army personnel, an initial uncertain condition in any complex decision-making situation may result in better decision-making ability. Science Daily (2018).Uncertainty, as named by Nassim Taleb, is the “Wisdom of the Unknown". Taleb (2008) saw that acknowledging and understanding uncertainty in various aspects of life can bring vast opportunities and an even better capacity for accurate decision-making. Thinkers like Taleb argue that uncertainty is an inherent part of life and should be embraced rather than avoided. Accepting that we cannot predict everything helps in making more informed and flexible decisions. Actually, uncertainty is seen to be highly linked to “antifragility", where most systems benefit from shocks and volatility. Instead of merely resisting damage, such systems thrive and grow stronger when exposed to uncertainty. Taleb (2014).Applying a better understanding of uncertainty can lead to better strategies in investing, policy-making, and personal decision-making. It emphasises the importance of robustness and adaptability in the face of unpredictable events. When a country or a community or an organisation provides practical insights into living and making choices under uncertainty, it promote a mindset geared towards resilience and preparation rather than false certainties. Living and coping with uncertainties emphasise the benefits of adaptability and resilience in an unpredictable world. Buheji (2019), Taleb (2008).
2.5. Difference between Risk and Uncertainty
All risks are uncertainty, but all uncertainties are not risks, Hilson (2012). Risk is a known unknown, whereas uncertainty is an unknown, Gooen (2016). Uncertainty requires the readiness of the mind to increase the thinking capacity about concealed future events. How a person thinks and behaves psychologically and physically demonstrates the uncertainty and end result. Berthome et.al. (2012).Uncertainty can often create fear and negative impact, but it can also inspire one to achieve the objective. People often wish to avoid uncertainty, but in other cases, if an uncertain reward is associated with a task, people tend to work harder. Shaw (2015).
2.6. How to Accept and Be More Comfortable with Uncertainty?
The reality of life is that things change daily; random events happen, and we are unprepared to deal with them. Uncertainty is a never-ending process as we enter the next stage of our lives; we encounter a new set of uncertainties, Stanford Report (2020), Buheji (2020a). Uncertainty can be very stressful. However, one should face uncertain situations with more confidence. Some uncertainties create a lot of panic, while other uncertain situations are not all that scary, like travelling to a new place or meeting a stranger. Uncertainty is an integral part of our lives, and with the world changing, uncertainty is more widespread than before; therefore, it is best to live with uncertainty rather than be intimidated by it. Kruglanski (2023).
2.7. Uncertainty After Wars
Uncertainty following wars can significantly impact post-conflict recovery and development. After a civil war like the one in Syria, uncertainty around governance, law enforcement, and political representation can lead to instability, hindering the establishment of effective institutions. Wars often cause significant destruction of infrastructure and economic systems. The uncertainty regarding economic recovery, investment, and job creation can deter domestic and foreign investment, complicating the rebuilding process. Civil war conflicts can exacerbate existing social divides, leading to mistrust between groups. Uncertainty surrounding social cohesion can hinder reconciliation efforts and the establishment of a unified national identity. Another uncertainty of civil war concerns the return of large numbers of internally displaced citizens and refugees. Their reintegration into society and access to resources complicate recovery efforts and strain local communities. Post-war environments often face lingering security challenges, including the presence of armed groups, crime, and terrorism. Uncertainty regarding safety can impede everyday life and discourage economic activities. After wars, populations may face significant humanitarian challenges, including food insecurity, lack of access to healthcare, and inadequate shelter. Uncertainties surrounding aid distribution and the capacity of local governments to respond can exacerbate these issues. For example, the decisions on prioritising reconstruction efforts amidst limited resources can be fraught with uncertainty. Stakeholders may disagree on which sectors to focus on, making creating a cohesive development strategy challenging. The post-war landscape can be characterised by fluctuating international support and collaboration. Uncertainties about foreign aid, political alliances, and economic cooperation can affect recovery trajectories. Even the trauma experienced during conflict can lead to lasting psychological effects on individuals and communities. Uncertainty regarding mental health support and social services can hinder healing and reintegration.Wars can lead to significant environmental degradation. Uncertainties about the long-term impacts on natural resources and ecosystems can affect agricultural productivity and public health.
2.8. Examples of How Countries Benefited Positively from Uncertainty Situations
2.8.1. Realising the Essence of Uncertainty in Countries' Transformation
Navigating uncertainty after wars requires a comprehensive approach that addresses the social, political, and economic dimensions of recovery, fostering resilience and stability in war-torn regions. While uncertainty is often challenging, several countries have leveraged uncertain situations to their advantage, leading to positive outcomes. Recent history shows that if nations know how to navigate these uncertainties effectively, they would become stronger and could bring in novel approaches while striving to create new identities. Buheji (2019).This can be seen in how engaging various stakeholders in the peace process can help create a more stable political transition and foster trust within communities, Buheji and Mushimiyimana (2024). Coordinated efforts to address economic recovery, social cohesion, and infrastructure development can also enhance the effectiveness of post-war reconstruction. Uncertainty can help strengthen local institutions, and governance capabilities can improve the ability to manage uncertainties and respond effectively to emerging challenges. Involving local communities in decision-making processes can enhance ownership and accountability, leading to more sustainable outcomes.
2.8.2. Notable Examples of How Managing Uncertainty Helped in Countries' Recovery
The following are examples that illustrate that while uncertainty can pose significant challenges, it can also spark innovation, policy shifts, and resilience, ultimately contributing to a country’s development and growth. By adapting to and capitalising on uncertain situations, these nations have transformed potential crises into opportunities for advancement. Buheji (2019).
2.8.2.1. Managing Uncertainty in Germany Post-World War II
Germany faced significant uncertainty regarding its political and economic future. Using the Marshall Plan and effective governance, the country implemented economic reforms that led to the "Wirtschaftswunder," or economic miracle, transforming it into a leading global economy. The uncertainty prompted innovative economic policies and a focus on rebuilding infrastructure.
2.8.2.2. Managing Uncertainty in South Korea after the Korean War
Following the Korean War, South Korea was left devastated and uncertain about its future. The government focused on economic planning and heavily invested in education, technology, and export-oriented industries. This uncertainty drove rapid industrialisation and economic growth, leading to South Korea becoming one of the world's leading economies.
2.8.2.3. Managing Uncertainty in Rwanda Post-Genocide
After the 1994 genocide, Rwanda grappled with severe social and political uncertainty. In the aftermath, the government prioritised national unity, reconciliation, and economic development. The focus on innovative governance and home-grown solutions, along with decentralisation and technology-driven initiatives, helped transform Rwanda into one of Africa's fastest-growing economies.
2.8.2.4. Managing Uncertainty in Singapore’s Strategic Adaptation
In the 1960s, Singapore faced geopolitical uncertainty due to its separation from Malaysia. To navigate this uncertainty, Singapore's leadership adopted a strategy focused on attracting foreign investment and enhancing its economic infrastructure. This adaptability led to rapid economic growth and made Singapore a global financial hub.
2.8.2.5. Managing Uncertainty by the Israeli Occupation
The Zionist Occupation Israeli Government used its significant security uncertainties due to the occupation of Palestine to create an environment spurred by innovation, particularly in technology and defence industries. Israel’s focus on research and development in response to security challenges has positioned it as a leader in fields like cybersecurity and agritech.
2.8.2.6. Managing Uncertainty in Chile’s Economic Reforms Post-Dictatorship
After the end of Pinochet’s dictatorship in 1990, Chile faced uncertainty regarding its economic policies and governance. In response, the country embraced market-oriented reforms and strengthened democratic institutions, leading to sustained economic growth and social stability in the years that followed.
2.8.2.7. Managing Uncertainty in India’s Economic Liberalization (1991)
Facing a balance of payments crisis and economic uncertainty, India undertook significant economic reforms in 1991. The government shifted from ‘a closed economy’ to a more ‘liberalized market’, which promoted foreign investment, entrepreneurship, and technological advancement, propelling India into a new phase of economic growth.
2.8.2.8. Managing Uncertainty in Colombia’s Peace Process
After decades of conflict and uncertainty, Colombia's 2016 peace agreement with the FARC guerrilla group paved the way for social and economic transformation. The peace process has encouraged investment and rural development, improving security and economic opportunities in former conflict zones. Buheji and Mushimiyimana (2024).
3. Methodology
The methodology includes a framework for searching and selecting criteria and analysing and interpreting resource materials. Research databases such as Scopus, JSTOR, and Google Scholar with publications in English were used to extract journals, conference papers, books, dissertations, newspaper articles, and websites related to Uncertainty and whatever relevance to Syria today. The search terms used were “Uncertainty”, “Uncertainty after Wars”, “Syria war”, “Syria post-Assad”, and other similar keywords. Original citations and references were used to appreciate the contribution of original authors.
4. Application & Analysis of Uncertainty in Relevance to Syria Today
By bringing innovative, novel approaches to dealing with uncertainties, Syria can significantly accelerate its development by enhancing resilience and coexistence efforts, fostering stability, and promoting economic growth. Syria can respond to its uncertainties by implementing flexible governance structures that could be ready for its alternating changing conditions. Participatory governance models that involve local communities in decision-making can help address specific needs and concerns amid uncertainties. Buheji, and Mushimiyimana (2025).For example, to deal with the country's economic uncertainty, the Syrian government can initiate strong economic diversification that encourages innovation in various sectors, such as agriculture, technology, and renewable energy. This can reduce dependency on single industries and create new job opportunities. Supporting startups and small businesses through microfinance and training can stimulate economic resilience.Community-driven initiatives aimed at reconciliation and social cohesion can mitigate the impact of uncertainties related to political and social stability. Innovative conflict resolution and peacebuilding strategies that help address underlying tensions can further develop this. Buheji (2020b).Investing in education and vocational training aligned with market demands can empower the Syrian workforce. Innovative educational programs incorporating technology can improve access to learning opportunities, especially for the displaced Syrians. Implementing policies would ensure equitable access to resources and opportunities for all segments of society can help build a more stable economic environment. Uncertainties can help develop comprehensive resilience frameworks that incorporate disaster risk reduction strategies. This can prepare Syrian communities for potential crises. It also includes investing in infrastructure that can withstand conflict-related disruptions.
5. Disecting Type of High Uncertainty in Syria Post-Assad Regime
5.1. Mitigating the Security Concerns
At the time of this paper, the majority of Syria is under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham; thus, there is still uncertainty regarding the fighting among the rebels within themselves or with the Assad forces in Syria. Therefore, the newly formed government must devise an effective strategy to combat further insurgency.With the end of the Assad regime, many countries are trying to establish a cordial relationship with the new interim government. Some countries are recalibrating their relationship with Syria based on the new interim government's efforts to commit to inclusivity and not to back extremist religious outfits. Turkey has reestablished its relationship with Syria as the first country to do so after the fall of the Assad government. MENA Task Force. (2024).After the fall of the corrupted Assad regime, the release of thousands of prisoners has brought happiness to the families who were living under scrutiny. There is uncertainty about the future of those displaced, along with dilapidated infrastructure and the provision of essential services to the citizens in the present infrastructure condition. There is uncertainty about the return of the refugees settled in other countries as their return would depend upon Syria's security and economic condition. There is a beginning of new hope, but uncertainty lies in the new government's ability to maintain peace and security and balance the diplomatic relations with other countries. It is just the beginning of a journey of rebuilding Syria. MENA Task Force. (2024).
5.2. Mitigating Economic Uncertainty
The economic situation in Syria has declined over the past decade due to various global challenges, such as the ongoing military escalation due to the outbreak of COVID-19, several droughts, the earthquake of 2023, the disastrous banking situation in Lebanon and the financial crunch in Turkey. The GDP of Syria was reduced by 54 per cent between 2010 and 2021. At present, around 90 per cent of Syrians are living below the poverty line. There is uncertainty in the Syrian economic situation due to the deteriorating infrastructure, the legacy of the corruption system and poor governance. Center For Operational Analysis and Research. (2024). The new government, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, wants to establish a free market system and has appointed Maysaa Sabrine as the first lady governor of the Central Bank. The uncertainty looms over the ministries as they are restructured to improve efficiency and accountability. An improvised tax system is introduced to care for the taxpayers' interest as the war and economic sanctions have squeezed the business, and the government's tax base has declined. The new government is trying to restructure the economy by focusing on local growth drivers like agriculture and housing. Many experts believe Syria needs considerable foreign technology and capital to drive economic growth. Wright (2025).Table (3). Sources for Economic Uncertainty in Syria  |
| |
|
5.3. Mitigating Humanitarian Services Uncertainty
Prolonged violence and clashes due to more than a decade-long civil war have made the humanitarian situation in Syria worsen, with thousands of people requiring urgent humanitarian assistance. There remains uncertainty in providing essential and emergency services such as healthcare, water, electricity, sanitation and shelter services to the displaced population. There remains uncertainty in the healthcare services as most of the hospitals and clinics have been closed or remain non-operational due to lack of funding. There has been a shortage of medical staff to provide medical services and an outbreak of seasonal diseases. According to a report published by the European Commission, 7 out of 10 require humanitarian assistance in Syria, with more than 50 per cent displaced. More than 50 per cent of the Syrian population is on humanitarian aid. European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (2024). There is uncertainty about the delivery of humanitarian aid by the UN Security Council as some borders along the neighbouring countries had been partially closed by the ousted government. Syrian citizens see hope as the new government is likely to open more international borders to increase humanitarian aid, particularly in areas that have been isolated and neglected for years. Center For Operational Analysis and Research (2024).
5.4. Mitigating Uncertainty on Displaced Refugees
About 7 million refugees have been displaced from their homes in Syria and have found refuge in adjacent countries such as Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. After the fall of the Assad regime, the Syrian refugees who could return to Syria during the Assad regime in fear of being detained or would have been forced to join the military could now return to Syria freely. The return of refugees has been made possible because of the increased security situation in Syria. However, there is uncertainty about food, accommodation and essential services such as healthcare and education among the refugees who would return.Table (4). Syrians at Home or where being considered to be Refugees in the Diaspora  |
| |
|
5.5. Mitigating Uncertainty on Control of Infrastructure and Natural Resources
The control and management of infrastructure and natural resources are key after the change of government in Syria. Uncertainty of lifting the sanctions imposed by the international community is required for rebuilding Syria. Al-Hasakeh and Quamishli cities, earlier under the control of the post-Syrian government, have now been taken under control by Kurd forces. There is uncertainty about sharing water resources for agriculture and drinking water if no agreement is reached between the ousted government and the new government. Uncertainty looms in the healthcare sector of Syria as the sanctions imposed by the USA, EU and other countries have crippled the entire healthcare system. Center For Operational Analysis and Research. (2024).Residents in Syria are seeking to start everyday life after the fall of the Assad government and hope for a better future despite the uncertainty ahead. According to a resident in Aleppo, Syria, talking about humanitarian and other services is pre-mature as the new government is still nascent. According to another resident of Aleppo, since the new government was formed, the prices of vegetables have increased, but the prices of fruits have decreased. There is a water and electricity crisis. CCTV Video News Agency.
6. Framework for Mitigating Uncertainty in Syria
6.1. Purpose of the Framework
This paper studied the following variables regarding the uncertainty in Syria. | Figure 1 |
The change of government in Syria after the end of the Assad regime has been seen as a tectonic shift in Syrian history. The new government of Syria has been seen as a broken and dangerous state as of today. One of the uncertainties is about how the new government would build a mechanism to deal with the corrupt officials of the last government and the influx of a large number of refugees, especially from Lebanon. The other uncertainty prevails about who and how to rule Syria, despite the overall feeling that the interim government seems to be aligned with the parties collectively carrying out the administrative task. However, with limited resources, it would take some time to reach the level of services that would make a difference compared to the earlier government. Establishing a well-administered collective government at a time of many uncertainties especially after a long conflict war, is a huge task, but it is essential for maintaining peace, security and stability in Syria. Among these uncertainties, there are many opportunities for the Syrians, especially those who have left the country and lived as refugees or diaspora abroad; they can boost the economy of Syria with their diversified skills and experiences. Center For Operational Analysis and Research. (2024).The key driver of the Syrian conflict was the sectarian division, with minorities being marginalised under the oppressive regime of Assad. The new Syrian government led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham should overcome this uncertainty by excelling in the way minorities are treated. However, the newly formed government has to stress about ‘no discrimination policies’ that would protect the minorities' rights. Center For Operational Analysis and Research. (2024). The decade of resentment and anger of the Syrian people has ended with the end of the Assad government. There is a lot of anger among the Syrian people with the news, images and stories about the cruelties and injustice done to the prisoners during the Assad regime. It is a challenge for the new government how to bring the perpetrators of crime to justice, and the way the interim government does justice would set an example for the future government. However, care has to be taken by the interim government to avoid extra-judicial punishment, as this would be a hindrance to creating a law-abiding state which is stable and full of support. Center For Operational Analysis and Research. (2024).
6.2. Framework for Synthesis of Transformation from Uncertainty to Stability
This framework proposes how to deal with Syria’s current or future uncertainties so that it can move from stability to fragmentation and gradual stabilisation, depending on certain practices. Table (5) establishes a general guideline for moving uncertainty towards a better situation. Table (5). Gives the possibilities that Uncertainty brings towards better stability and gradual stabilisation  |
| |
|
7. Discussion and Conclusions
By leveraging on uncertainty, Syria can be a role model in innovative socioeconomic strategies that can navigate the inherent uncertainties it faces and lay the groundwork for sustainable development, ultimately transforming challenges into opportunities for growth and stability.The future of Syria at this uncertain moment would depend on effective leadership and how they would safeguard the interests of minorities and the marginalised. How quickly can they stabilise the country, bring peace and prosperity and revive the economic growth? It is a moment of both happiness and a test for the people of Syria. Happiness for those who had sought long-term freedom from the dictatorship of the Assad regime and a test for those who want Syria to come out stronger and more stable after a long, devastating civil war.In conclusion, the journey of Syria following the end of the Assad regime is fraught with significant uncertainty that poses formidable challenges for governance, social cohesion, and economic recovery. As the new government navigates a complex landscape marked by diverse community needs and external pressures, it is crucial to acknowledge that uncertainty can serve as both a hurdle and an opportunity. By embracing a transparent, inclusive decision-making framework, the government can effectively manage expectations and foster public trust, ultimately leading to sustainable development.The lessons learned from other countries' post-conflict recovery experiences highlight the importance of adaptability and resilience in addressing uncertainty's social, political, and economic dimensions. Initiatives that prioritise community engagement, economic diversification, and infrastructure rebuilding are essential for stabilising the nation and promoting a harmonious society. Furthermore, addressing the humanitarian needs and reintegrating displaced populations will be critical in restoring hope and stability in Syria and eliminating the negativity of uncertainty. As the country moves forward, it is vital that policymakers remain responsive to the evolving challenges, leveraging the collective strengths of its diverse communities to build a brighter future. Ultimately, the path to recovery hinges on transforming uncertainty into strategic action that fosters goodwill, national pride, and a renewed sense of identity for all Syrians.
References
[1] | Al Jazeera. (2024, December 8). New history written’ says HTS leader al-Julani in Syria victory speech. Retrieved from Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/8/hts-leader-al-julani-arrives-in- syrias-capital-delivers-victory-speech. |
[2] | Berthome, F., Bonhomme, J., & Delaplace, G. (2012). Cultivating Uncertainty. Journal of Ethnographic Theory HAU, HAU-N.E.T, vol. 2 (n°2. (Cultivating Uncertainty: Ethnographies of opaque sociality)), 129-137. |
[3] | Buheji, M (2025) Bridging Divides: The Importance of 'Goodwill Value' for Syria's Today and Future Stability, Business and Economic Research; 15(1): 137-147. |
[4] | Buheji, M; Ahmed, Dunya and Jahrami, H (2020a) Living Uncertainty in the New Normal, International Journal of Applied Psychology; 10(2): 21-31. |
[5] | Buheji, M; Mavrić, B; Beka, G; Yein, T (2020b) Alleviation of Refugees COVID-19 Pandemic Risks- A Framework for Uncertainty Mitigation, International Business Research, Vol. 13, No. 7, pp. 69-79. |
[6] | Buheji, M (2019) Reviewing How ‘Creating Resilient Economies’ can Help Developing Countries in Uncertain Times, American Journal of Economics, Vol. 9, Issue 5, pp. 259-263. |
[7] | Buheji, M; Mushimiyimana, E (2025) Re-Engineering Coexistence in Syria- A Comparative Study, International Journal of Advanced and Multidisciplinary Social Science, 10(1): 1-11. |
[8] | Buheji, M; Mushimiyimana, E (2024) The Path to Recovery-Insights from Rwanda's Experience for Syria's Peacebuilding Efforts. Library Progress International, 44(6), 301-312. |
[9] | Du Buisson, A. A. (2025, January 20). From Ba’athist rule to uncertainty: Syria’s fragile future – opinion. Retrieved from The Jerusalem Post: https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-838235CCTVPLUS. (2024, December 16). CCTV Video news Agency. Retrieved from Residents in Syria Expect Sufficient Basic Services Amid Uncertainty: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2XCeC3Mmy8. |
[10] | Center For Operational Analysis and Research. (2024). The New Syria:Implications and Uncertainties for International Responders and Donors. Center For Operational Analysis and Research. |
[11] | Cuzzolin, F. (2016). The geometry of uncertainty The geometry of imprecise probabilities. Springer. |
[12] | Eilam, E. (2019). Containment in the Middle East. Nebraska Press. |
[13] | European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations. (2024). Retrieved from European Commission: https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/where/middle-east-and-northern-africa/syria_en. |
[14] | Gooen, O. (2016, December 22). The Confusion of Risk vs. Uncertainty. Retrieved from Medium: https://medium.com/guesstimate-blog/the-confusion-of-risk-vs-uncertainty-1c6cd512aa69. |
[15] | Hilson, D. (n.d.). When is a Risk not a Risk. https://www.who.int/management/general/risk/WhenRiskNotRisk.pdf: World Health Organization. |
[16] | Kruglanski, A. (2023, December 20). How to embrace uncertainty. Retrieved from Psyche: https://psyche.co/guides/how-to-face-uncertain-situations-and-embrace-opportunity. |
[17] | Latschan, T. (2024, December 22). In data: Syria after the war. Retrieved from DW News: https://www.dw.com/en/in-data-syria-after-the-war/a-71126617. |
[18] | MENA Task Force. (2024, December 10). A New Chapter for Syria: Analyzing the Collapse of Assad’s Regime. Retrieved from Beyond The Horizon: https://behorizon.org/a-new-chapter-for-syria-analyzing-the-collapse- of-assads-regime/. |
[19] | Science Daily. (2018). Uncertainty may be key in battlefield decision making. Retrieved from Science Daily: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180713093547.htm. |
[20] | Shaw, A. (2015, March 01). Uncertainty Can Improve Motivation. Retrieved from Chichago Booth Review: https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/uncertainty-can-improve-motivation. |
[21] | Stanford Report. (2020, November 4). Living with uncertainty: Retrieved from Stanford Report: https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2020/11/living-with-uncertainty. |
[22] | Taleb, N (2014) Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, Random House Trade. |
[23] | Taleb, N (2008) The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Penguin. |
[24] | UNHCR. (2024). Syria Report. UNHCR. |
[25] | Wikipedia. (2025, Jamuary 15). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syria. Retrieved from Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syria. |
[26] | Wright, A. (2025, January 8). Rebuilding Syria’s economy: Can stability return after war? Retrieved from Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/1/8/rebuilding-syrias-economy-can-stability-return- after-war#:~:text=Millions%20more%20have%20been%20displaced,thought%20to%20live%20in%20 poverty. |