1. Introduction

In Ondo and Ekiti States, Nigeria, university education as been well acclaimed as an instrument for the development of the individual and the society. This might perhaps be the result of the people’s desire for higher education. Since the creation of Ondo State from the defunct western Nigeria in 1976 education as remained the only major industry in the State. In like manner when Ekiti State was created out of Ondo State in 1996, the importance of education could not be overemphasized. This was manifested in the influx of students into secondary schools in the two States. The influx was necessitated due to the free education programme embarked upon by the government of the two States which made the children of poor parents to have access to formal education within the school system.

The situation was exaggerated by the fact that the government of the two States started the payment of examination fees for final year students of their State origin in one of the three examination bodies conducting the Senior Secondary Certificate Examinations in the country[1; 2]. The examination bodies were the West African Examinations Council (WAEC), The National Examinations Council (NECO) and The National Business and Technical Examinations Board (NABTEB). These examination bodies conduct the Senior Secondary Certificate Examinations at different times of the year for final year high school students in order to prepare them for admission into Nigerian universities. The grading pattern of scores in each subject in the examinations was such that A1 was regarded as excellent grade, B2 and B3 were very good grades, C4 to C6 were credit grades, D7 and E8 were ordinary pass grades while F9 was failure grade[3; 4; 5].

In the university setting, academic success is determined by the class of degree of students in their various courses of studies. First class (honours) degree is the highest level degree that could be obtained by candidate who scored 4.5 and above cumulative grade point average (CGPA). Second class (honours) upper division is the second highest degree for candidate who scored between 3.5 and 4.49 cumulative grade point average (CGPA). Second class (honours) lower division is another level degree for candidate who scored between 2.5 and 3.49 cumulative grade point average. Third class (honours) degree is for those candidates who scored between 1.5 and 2.49. Ordinary pass degree is for those who scored between 1.0 and 1.49 cumulative grade point average (CGPA) while failure grade is for those who scored less than 1.0 cumulative grade point average (CGPA)[6; 7]. It needs to be pointed out however that a student who scored above 3.5 cumulative grade point average, that is, second class upper division and above is deemed to have successfully passed very well at distinction levels in the universities[8].

2. Literature Review

The term academic performance has been described as “the scholastic standing of a student at a given moment.” The scholastic standing could be explained as the grades obtained in a course or groups of courses; and the way in which a student has attained the grades including the time he or she passed examination two after passing examination one[9]. This contention was supported by the findings of other researchers[10; 11] who reported that the grades obtained by students in public examinations are concrete evidences of their academic performance. The grades were also regarded by[12] &[13] as the numerical value of the weighted scores obtained by candidates in the examinations. These weighted scores might have included scores of continuous assessment, class test and end of year examinations throughout the 6 years of secondary education in Nigeria.

The importance of intelligence quotients (IQ) in students’ academic performance cannot be overstressed.[14] made this point when he investigated the importance of intelligence quotients (IQ) in performance rating. He found that achievement scores increased as the intelligence quotient increases.[15] agreed with this finding and remarked that “IQ testing has been extremely successful on the practical level predicting academic success from early childhood to university degree.”

Thus, in predicting academic performance,[9] identified the grades obtained by students in examinations as a major factor in predicting academic performance. They argued that “a prediction of a future examination result can be made with reasonable success on the basis of the results of an earlier examination” and that “grades may serve as prediction measures and as criterion measures.” Findings made by[16],[17] and[18] supported this fact and confirmed the validity of the number and grades of passes in Junior Level Examinations in predicting university performance.[19] supported the point and reported that the “Advance level (A-level) examinations served the dual functions of assessing knowledge and predicting academic performance.”

Likewise,[20] found the American College Test (ACT) scores as a good predictor of academic performance. Contrary to the above finding,[21] found that the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) which is administered in a single session and not based on any specific subject syllabus is unable to predict examination performance as effectively as the Leaving Certificate Examination (LCE) point scores. They however, reported that the SAT is “a significant predictor of third level academic performance as demonstrated in the applicant-group analyses.”

[16] conducted a study on “the effect of the admission policy, socio-economic factors, demographic and personal considerations on students’ performance” in Kuwait. He conducted a pilot study with a group of 100 students to whom he gave questionnaires. The result of the pilot study led him to a revision of the questionnaires. Although he utilized the chi square test, correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression to analyze his data, he found that a student’s grade in an examination “depends on the cumulative grade point average.”

Many researchers have reported that the GCE and Secondary School Certificate examination results provided the best predictor of university performance.[22] found that “students with a high number of credits in the Nigerian secondary school examination tend to perform well” at the tertiary level of education. In a study on “predicting educational performance at tertiary level on the basis of secondary level performance” in Nigeria, he found that the good and solid background of the students boosted their performance at the tertiary level of education. This finding was however negated by other researchers[23; 24] who found that performance of students in lower level examination might not necessarily predict performance in higher level examination.

Notwithstanding, the index of academic performance varied from one country to another.[25] commented on the index of academic achievement in India but did not specify a particular examination as the best predictor of Indian academic achievement. In Kenya,[26] found that “the Certificate of Primary Education (CPE) scores had a moderate positive linear relationship with the Certificate of Secondary Education (CSE) grades with a correlation of 0.56 between them.”

Certain researchers,[27; 28] examined the predictive validity of different entrance examinations in predicting future examinations in Nigerian schools and found conflicting results. These conflicting results could perhaps be due to the nature by which the examinations were conducted[29]. In view of this divergent finding, this study intended to examine the predictive ability of the WAEC, NECO and NABTEB Senior Secondary Certificate Examinations in predicting academic success in universities in Ondo and Ekiti States, Nigeria.

3. Statement of the Problem

The dwindling performance of students in the secondary schools in Ondo and Ekiti States, Nigeria as been a matter of concern to stakeholders in education[30; 31; 32]. It seems, however, that many examinations at junior level could perhaps not effectively predict students’ performance in high level examinations[33; 34]. One salient factor which seems to have accounted for this is perhaps the standard of the examinations conducted which varies from one examination body to another.

This is evident in the public opinion about the poor standard of the students graduating from the universities[35; 36]. The problem of this study therefore was to determine which entry qualification out of the WAEC, NECO and NABTEB Senior Secondary Certificate Examinations best predicts students’ performance in final year degree examinations in universities in Ondo and Ekiti States, Nigeria? In addressing this problem, the following research questions were raised.

● What is the number of students on the basis of their entry qualifications who scored 3.5 and above Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA) in the final 400 level examinations for the Bachelor of Education degree in the faculty of education at Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and the University of Ado Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria?

● Is there any significant difference in the cumulative grade point average for the bachelor of education degree between Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and University of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria on the basis of their entry qualifications?

● Which of the entry qualifications of WAEC, NECO and NABTEB Senior Secondary Certificate Examination (SSCE) results best predict high cumulative grade point average of 3.5 and above in the bachelor of education degree in Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and University of Ado- Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria?

4. Method

The research design adopted for this study was the ex-post facto research design. An ex-post facto research is an after event research involving the collection of existing data[37]. On the basis of this, the study population comprised all the 4 universities in Ondo and Ekiti States, Nigeria as at 2010. These were made up of the 2 universities in Ondo State and the other 2 universities in Ekiti State, Nigeria. Out of this population, 2 universities were sampled for the study. These were Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and University of Ado Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria. The method of selection was by purposive sampling technique. All the 1370 students who scored 3.5 and above cumulative grade point average (CGPA) in the final year 400 level bachelor of education degree examinations in 2010/2011 academic year in the 2 universities were purposively selected for the study. These were made up of 550 final year 400 level Bachelor of education students at Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and 820 final year 400 level Bachelor of education students at the University of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria. All the 8 Heads of Departments of the faculty of education in the 2 universities were the respondents in the study.

The instrument used to collect data for the study was an inventory titled ‘entry qualifications and final degree examinations inventory’ (EQFDEI). The instrument was in 2 parts 1 and 2. Part 1 elicited demographic information about each university such as the name of the university, year founded, number of faculties, number of students, number of lecturers’, number of non-academic staff, number of final year 400 level students in the faculty of education in the 2 universities. Part 2 consisted of 3 sections. Section A requested data on students’ enrolment in education courses in the faculty of education of the two universities. Section B required data on the entry qualifications of the final year 400 level students of the faculty of education in the two universities. Section C requested information on the cumulative grade point average obtained by the final year 400 level students of the faculty of education in the two universities.

The content validity of the instrument was determined by experts in Test and Measurement who matched each items in the inventory with the research questions in order to determine whether or not the instrument actually measured what it was supposed to measure. The observations made by the test experts were used to effect necessary corrections of the instrument.

The instruments were administered to the respondents by the researcher and research assistants. After a period of two weeks, the completed instruments were retrieved from the respondents. All the respondents duly completed the instruments thereby indicating a 100 % response rate. The data collected were analyzed using frequency counts, percentages, Chi Square test, Correlation Matrix, Regression Analysis of Variance and Multiple Regression. The null hypotheses formulated in the study were tested for significance at 0.05 alpha level using the 2-tailed test.

5. Results and Discussion

Question 1: What is the number of students on the basis of their entry qualifications who scored 3.5 and above Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA) in the final 400 level examinations for the Bachelor of Education degree in the faculty of education at Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and the University of Ado Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria?

In answering this question, data on the number of students who scored the cumulative grade point average (CGPA) of 3.5 and above in the final 400 level examinations for the bachelor of education degree at Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and the University of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria were collected from the respondents using the inventory. The data were analyzed using frequency counts and percentages. Table 1 shows the finding.

In table 1, students with WAEC entry qualifications into the two universities were greatest in number out of the students having the 3 entry qualifications who obtained 3.5 and above cumulative grade point average (CGPA) in the final year 400 level bachelor of education degree. The WAEC entry qualifications accounted for 45.2% at Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State and 51.7% of the intakes at the University of Ado-Ekiti respectively. This was followed by the NECO entry qualification which accounted for 30.4% of the intakes into Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State and 37.8% of the intakes at the University of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria. The NABTEB entry qualifications had the least number of students who scored cumulative grade point average (CGPA) of 3.5 and above among all the final year 400 level students in the faculty of education in the 2 universities. The NABTEB entry qualifications accounted for only 24.4% at Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State and 10.5% of the intakes at the University of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria.

The graph depicting the relationship between the entry qualifications and cumulative grade point average (CGPA) obtained by the final year 400 level students of the faculty of education in the 2 universities is shown in figure 1.

Figure 1 shows the relationship between each of the 3 entry qualifications into the 2 universities in Ondo and Ekiti States, Nigeria and the cumulative grade point average (CGPA) of 3.5 and above obtained by the students in the final 400 level bachelor of education degree examinations. The graph slopes down from the highest number of students’ who obtained CGPA of 3.5 and above with WAEC entry qualifications to the lowest point obtained by students’ who obtained CGPA of 3.5 and above with NABTEB entry qualifications. The graph also shows distinctively that the highest number of students who scored 3.5 and above CGPA in the 2 universities were those who entered the universities through the WAEC entry qualifications. This implies that the greater the number of students who entered the universities through the WAEC entry qualifications, the greater the number of such students who obtained higher cumulative grade point average of 3.5 and above in the final bachelor of education degree examination in the 2 universities.

Table 1. Number Of Final Year 400 Level Students Of The Faculty Of Education Who Scored 3.5 And Above Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA) On The Basis Of Their Entry Qualifications At Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and The University Of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria

Table 2. Chi-Square Output of Entry Qualifications into the Universities and Obtaining Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA) of 3.5 and Above in the two Universities

Table 3. Correlation matrix on entry qualifications and cumulative grade point average (CGPA) at Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria

Table 4. Correlation matrix on entry qualifications and cumulative grade point average (CGPA) at the University of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria

Figure 1. Entry Qualifications and CGPA Obtained by Final Year Bachelor of Education Degree Students in Universities in Ondo and Ekiti States, Nigeria

Question 2: Is there any significant difference in the cumulative grade point average for the bachelor of education degree between Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and University of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria on the basis of their entry qualifications?

In answering this question, the following hypothesis was raised.

Ho: There is no significant difference in the cumulative grade point average for the bachelor of education degree between Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State and the University of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria on the basis of their entry qualifications.

In testing this hypothesis, data on the number of final year 400 level education students who were admitted into the universities through the 3 different entry qualifications namely WAEC, NECO and NABTEB were collected through the responses of the respondents to the inventory. Data on the cumulative grade point average (CGPA) of the students in the final bachelor of education degree examinations in 2010/2011 academic year were also collected through the inventory. The data collected were analysed using the chi-square statistic. The results are presented in table 2.

In table 2, the calculated Chi Square (9.524) was greater than the table Chi Square (5.991) at 0.05 alpha level. Hence, the null-hypothesis was rejected. This indicates that there was a significant difference in the number of students who obtained cumulative grade point average of 3.5 and above in the final 400 level examinations for the bachelor of education degree between Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State and the University of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria on the basis of their entry qualifications. The University of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State had greater number of final year 400 level students who obtained higher cumulative grade point average (CGPA) of 3.5 and above in the final 400 level bachelor of education degree examinations than the Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria. This suggest that the University of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria outperformed Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria in the number of students who obtained higher cumulative grade point average (CGPA) of 3.5 and above in the final 400 level bachelor of education degree examinations.

Question 3: Which of the entry qualifications of WAEC, NECO and NABTEB Senior Secondary Certificate Examination (SSCE) results best predict high cumulative grade point average of 3.5 and above in the bachelor of education degree in Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and University of Ado- Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria?

In answering this question, the following hypothesis was raised.

Ho: None of the entry qualifications of WAEC, NECO and NABTEB Senior Secondary Certificate Examination (SSCE) results best predict high cumulative grade point average of 3.5 and above in the bachelor of education degree in Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and the University of Ado- Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria?

In testing this hypothesis, data on the number of final year 400 level education students admitted through the 3 different entry qualifications of WAEC, NECO and NABTEB into Adekunle Ajasin University in Ondo State and the University of Ado- Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria for the Bachelor of education degree were collected through the responses of the respondents to the inventory. Data on the cumulative grade point average of the students for the Bachelor of education degree in the two universities were also collected through the responses of the respondents to the inventory. The hypothesis was tested using multiple regression analysis. Since one of the first steps in calculating a multiple regression equation with several variables is to calculate a correlation matrix for all the variables[38], correlation analysis was computed while a correlation matrix was derived showing the coefficient of correlation for each pair of variables. The findings are presented in table 3 and 4.

Tables 3 and 4 shows the relationship between each pair of variables examined in the study.

The entry qualifications showed significant relationship with the cumulative grade point average (CGPA) of 3.5 and above for the Bachelor of education degree in the 2 universities. The value of ‘r’ shows the correlation coefficient between each pair of variables. The finding reveals that the correlation between entry qualification and each of the other variables was significant at 0.05 alpha level while the correlation coefficient of other pairs of variables was value added. Since the correlation analysis determines only the relationship between each pair of variables, it could not show the relationship among all the variables put together. As such, the multiple regression analysis was computed so as to determine the interrcorrelation among the variables.

In computing the multiple regression analysis, it is necessary to first determine the regression analysis of variance. Hence, the sum of square, the mean square, the F Ratio and the significant F were computed. The findings are shown in tables 5 and 6.

Table 5. Regression Analysis of Variance Showing Entry Qualifications and CGPA of 3.5 and above for the Bachelor of Education Degree at the Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria

Table 6. Regression Analysis of Variance Showing Entry Qualifications and CGPA of 3.5 and above for the Bachelor of Education Degree at the University of Ado Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria

As indicated in tables 5 and 6, the F ratio for Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria = 71.657 while the F ratio for the University of Ado Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria = 95.472. The Sign. F for Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria = 0.0002 while that of University of Ado Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria = 0.0000.

In order to determine which of the predictor variables best predict the values of the criterion variable, all the variables were put into the regression model. The findings are indicated in tables 7 and 8.

Table 7. Multiple Regression Analysis on Variables in Respect of Adekunle Ajasin University Ondo State, Nigeria

Thus, the regression equation derivable from the table 7 is:

Y = 3.2142 + 0.6724 (WAEC) + 0.5462 (NECO) + 0.3571 (NABTEB)

The following outputs were also obtained from the regression model.

Multiple R = 0.6942

R Square = 0.7054

Adjusted R Square = 0.6571

Standard Error = 0.0246

Table 8. Multiple Regression Analysis on Variables in Respect of University of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria

Thus, the regression equation derivable from the table 8 is:

Y = 3.7425 + 0.7216 (WAEC) + 0.5841 (NECO) + 0.4312 (NABTEB)

The following outputs were also obtained from the regression model.

Multiple R = 0.7647

R Square = 0.7241

Adjusted R Square = 0.6842

Standard Error = 0 .0145

As indicated in tables 7 and 8, all the variables entered the regression equation at 0.05 alpha level. This shows that there was a significant relationship between all the predictor variables of WAEC, NECO and NABTEB entry qualifications into the universities and the criterion variable, cumulative grade point average (CGPA). The best predictor of success in the final Bachelor of Education degree was the WAEC entry qualifications which contributed 67.2% and 72.1% to the regression equation for Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and the University of Ado Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria respectively. This was followed by the NECO entry qualifications which contributed 54.6% and 58.4% to the regression equation for Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and the University of Ado Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria respectively. NABTEB had the least contribution among the three entry qualifications to the regression equation for both universities. It contributed only 35.7% and 43.1% to the regression equation for Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and the University of Ado Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria respectively.

The R² of 0.7054 and 0.7241 for Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and the University of Ado Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria respectively found in this study shows that 70.5% and 72.4% of the variations of CGPA are accounted for by the variations in entry qualifications for the respective universities. The total balance of 29.5% and 27.6% might have been accounted for by the variations in the variables that were not examined in this study.

The adjusted R² of 0.6571 and 0.6842 for Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria and the University of Ado Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria respectively attempts to correct the R² in order to closely reflect the goodness of fit. It shows how well the data fit into the regression model. If the data fits into the model very well, the adjusted R² will have a value of 1 but if it does not fit into the model, the value will be 0. As such, the value of the adjusted R² is between 0 and 1[39]. Although it attempts to correct the optimistic bias of the sample R², the adjusted R² does not necessarily increase as more variables are added to an equation. The adjusted R² 0.6571 and 0.6842 for the two universities respectively were thus the preferred measure of goodness of fit because they were not subjected to the bias of the unadjusted R².

The foregoing shows the analysis of data collected for this study. In the analysis, students with WAEC entry qualifications into the two universities were greatest in number out of the students having the three entry qualifications who obtained 3.5 and above cumulative grade point average (CGPA) in the final year 400 level bachelor of education degree. This finding was consistent with the findings made by earlier researchers[29; 40].

The findings indicating that the University of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria had a greater number of students who obtained 3.5 (CGPA) and above in the final year 400 level bachelor of education degree shows that the University of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria outperformed Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria on the basis of their entry qualifications. This finding suggest that greater number of students with better entry qualifications refer to attend the University of Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria at the expense of Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria.

The contributions of each of the three entry qualifications, that is, WAEC, NECO and NABTEB to the regression equation shows the predictive strength of each of the three entry qualifications. One salient finding in the study was the fact that the WAEC entry qualifications had the greatest contribution to the regression equation among the three entry qualifications. The finding was in consonance with the findings made by other researchers[41; 17].

The fact that WAEC entry qualifications was the best predictor of success in the final year 400 level bachelor of education degree in the two universities suggest that students having WAEC entry qualifications outperformed students having NECO and NABTEB qualifications.

This finding agreed with the findings made by[10] and[42] who found the performance of students in lower level examinations as good predictor of success in higher level examinations. The finding was also consistent with the finding made by[26] who found that “the Certificate of Primary Education (CPE) in Kenya scores had a moderate positive linear relationship with the Certificate of Secondary Education (CSE) grades with a correlation of 0.56 between them.” The finding was however at variance with the findings made by[43] who reported that students’ performance in higher level examinations could not really be related to their performance in lower level examinations. This finding is subject to further research.

The fact that the NABTEB entry qualifications had the lowest contribution to the regression equation in the two universities suggests that the NABTEB entry qualification needs much to be desired.

6. Conclusions and Recommendations

Considering the findings of this study, it was concluded that the WAEC entry qualification was the best predictor of success in the final year bachelor of education degree in universities in Ekiti and Ondo States, Nigeria. Evidences from this study have led the researcher to conclude that the NABTEB entry qualification was not a good predictor of success in the final year 400 level bachelor of education degree in the two universities.

Based on the findings of the study, it was recommended that more emphasis should be placed on the WAEC examinations results as entry qualifications in admitting students into the bachelor of education degree programmes in universities in Ekiti and Ondo States, Nigeria. This is evident in the fact that the finding of this study has isolated the WAEC entry qualification as the best predictor of success in the final year bachelor of education degree examinations in the two universities. The Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Nigeria should put in more effort in increasing the admission of students into degree programmes in the faculty of education. As such, universities should de-emphasize the admission of students through. The NABTEB examination board should intensify more efforts in increasing the standard of their examinations in order to compete favourably with the WAEC entry qualification into universities in a bid to achieving the much needed qualitative education in Nigeria.