American Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
p-ISSN: 2162-948X e-ISSN: 2162-8475
2015; 5(5): 253-258
doi:10.5923/j.ajms.20150505.05

Udoy S. Basak 1, Bimal Kumar Datta 2, Prodip Kumar Ghose 3
1Lecturer, Department of Mathematics, Pabna University of Science & Technology, Pabna, Bangladesh
2Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematics, Pabna University of Science & Technology, Pabna, Bangladesh
3Senior Lecturer, Department of Mathematics, American International University, Bangladesh
Correspondence to: Udoy S. Basak , Lecturer, Department of Mathematics, Pabna University of Science & Technology, Pabna, Bangladesh.
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This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY).
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Mathematical model is a very useful tool to understand and analyse the dynamics of diseases. Here we present a non-linear mathematical model which investigates the spread and control of HIV in different populations. Present study fitted the model, which exhibits two equilibrium points namely, the disease free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium point. The global stability of these equilibrium points is also investigated. The model is analysed by using the basic reproduction number
Keywords: HIV, AIDS, Basic reproduction number, Endemic equilibrium point, Local and global stability
Cite this paper: Udoy S. Basak , Bimal Kumar Datta , Prodip Kumar Ghose , Mathematical Analysis of an HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model, American Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 5 No. 5, 2015, pp. 253-258. doi: 10.5923/j.ajms.20150505.05.
T cells), macrophages and dendritic cells. in the human immune system such as helper T cells HIV infection leads to low levels of
T cells through a number of mechanisms including: apoptosis of uninfected by stancer cells, direct viral killing of infected cells, and killing of infected
T cells by CD8 cytotoxic lymphocytes that recognize infected cells. When
T cell numbers decline below a critical level, cell-mediated immunity is lost, and the body becomes progressively more susceptible to opportunistic infections [1].Without treatment, HIV infection gradually destroys the immune system. Standard HIV treatment (also called antiretroviral therapy or ART) involves taking a combination of HIV medicines from at least two different HIV drugs classes every day. ART is highly effective at preventing HIV from multiplying. Having less HIV in the body protects the immune system and prevents HIV from advancing to AIDS. ART also reduces the risk of HIV drug resistance.
This population
is divided into four mutually-exclusive compartments, namely susceptible class S(t), the infected individuals who do not know that they are infected
the infected individuals who do know that they are infected
and that of the AIDS populations
Hence the total population at time t,
can be written as
It is assumed that individuals are recruited at a constant rate Π to the susceptible class S(t). Susceptible individuals can be infected with HIV following the contact with infected individuals at a rate λ, where
where
are the transmission rates for HIV. The individuals in the
class are more infectious than those in the
class. Therefore we must have
Suppose that the individuals of the
class enter into the
class at a rate
and into the AIDS class
at a rate
Again suppose that the individuals of the
class progress into the AIDS class at a rate
Let
and
denote the natural mortality rate and disease induced death rate respectively. Under the above considerations, the model dynamics is assumed to be governed by the following system of ordinary differential equations
Total population can be written as
Here Eq. (2) is changing at a rate
In the absence of disease i.e. for
we have
By the separation of variables of differential inequality (3.3) we must have
Integrating the above equation we have
where
is a constant which is to be determined. Let at
So we have,
From Eq. (3.4) we have
As
Therefore, the feasible solutions set of the system (1) enters the region:
In this case, whenever
every solution with initial condition in
remains in that region for
Thus the model is well posed and epidemiologically meaningful in the domain
Then we need to show that the solution set
of system (1) is positive for
From the first equation of the system (1) we have
Integrating we have s
provided
Similarly from the 2nd, 3rd and 4th equation of model (1) we have:
Thus the solution set
of system (1) is positive for all 
and define the “diseased” classes that are either exposed or infectious. For all equilibrium points we have
The positive disease-free equilibrium point for the model (1) is
The model (1) has exactly one disease-free equilibrium point and the equilibrium point is
We need to show that the DFE is the only equilibrium point of the model (1). Substituting
in the model (1) shows all derivatives equal to zero; hence DFE is an equilibrium point. From the above lemma, the only equilibrium point for
is
Thus the only equilibrium point for the model (1) is DFE [3].
The associated non-negative matrix
for the new infection terms and the non-singular M-matrix,
for the remaining transfer terms, are given, respectively by
and
The basic reproduction number
is the spectral radius of the matrix
The Eigenvalues of the matrix
are
So the basic reproduction number is
The disease-free equilibrium point
of the model (1) is locally asymptotically stable if
and unstable if 
Since
and
so the condition is satisfied. So
is globally asymptotically stable when 
so that
Then the model (1) can be written in the form
where
and
as
where
The Jacobian of the system (7.1) is
To analyse the dynamics of (7.1), we compute the Eigen values of the Jacobian of (7.1) at the disease free equilibrium point. It can be shown that this Jacobian has a right eigenvector given by:
The left eigenvectors are given by
Now using (7.1) we have
and
Thus the model (7.1) satisfies the required criteria. So the model (1) has a unique endemic equilibrium point which is locally asymptotically stable when
and unstable when
[4].
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is the transmission rate of HIV from
to
class. The effect of
is monitored in the figure (1) and (2). From the figure it is observed that if we increase the value of
then the value of
decreases. Hence the number of infected population also decreases.
is the transmission of the disease from
class to the AIDS class
In the figure (3) and (4), the effect of
is observed. The increment in the value of
increases the basic reproduction number
As a result it increases the number of total infected population. The prevalence of the disease is being monitored in the figure (5) and (6).In this paper, a non-linear mathematical model is formulated. Sufficient conditions are given ensuring the local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium point and unique endemic equilibrium point. The disease free equilibrium point
is shown locally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number
is less than unity. The global stability is also investigated. Finally we have shown that the model has a unique endemic equilibrium point which is locally asymptotically stable.![]() | Figure 1. Total infection as a function of time for model (1) with different values of where ![]() |
![]() | Figure 2. Total infection as a function of time for model (1) with different values of where ![]() |
![]() | Figure 3. Total infection as a function of time for model (1) with different values of where ![]() |
![]() | Figure 4. Total infection as a function of time for model (1) with different values of ![]() |
![]() | Figure 5. Prevalence as a function of time for model (1) with different values of where ![]() |
![]() | Figure 6. Prevalence as a function of time for model (1) with different values of where ![]() |
class to the AIDS class
the disease elimination if feasible. • The most effective way to lower the incidence rate is to isolate the susceptible population as soon as possible.